Working Paper No. 1707 Selffulfilling Debt Crises 2020
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NBER Working Paper No. 21026 Issued in March 2015, Revised in October 2017 NBER Programs:Economic Fluctuations and Growth Program, International Finance and Macroeconomics Program. We develop a model for analyzing the sovereign debt crises of 2010–2013 in the Eurozone. The government sets its expenditure-debt policy optimally. Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: Can Monetary Policy Really Help? Philippe Bacchetta, Elena Perazzi, Eric van Wincoop. NBER Working Paper No. 21158 Issued in May 2015 NBER Programs:International Finance and Macroeconomics Program, The Monetary Economics Program, Public Economics Program This paper examines quantitatively the potential for monetary policy to avoid self-fulfilling sovereign debt. NBER Working Paper No. 21158 May 2015 JEL No. E52,E60,E63 ABSTRACT This paper examines quantitatively the potential for monetary policy to avoid self-fulfilling sovereign debt crises. We combine a version of the slow-moving debt crisis model proposed by Lorenzoni and Werning 2014 with a standard New Keynesian model. Downloadable with restrictions! This paper examines the potential for monetary policy to avoid self-fulfilling sovereign debt crises. We combine a version of the slow-moving debt crisis model proposed by Lorenzoni and Werning 2014 with a standard New Keynesian model. Monetary policy could preclude a debt crisis through raising inflation and output and lowering the real interest rate.

Jun 01, 2004 · Summary: Several papers argue that debt crises can be the result of self-fulfilling expectations that no one will lend to a country. I show this type of coordination failure can be eliminated by a combination of state-contingent securities and a mechanism that allows investors to promise to lend only if enough other investors do so as well. Abstract. This paper examines quantitatively the potential for monetary policy to avoid self-fulfilling sovereign debt crises. We combine a version of the slow-moving debt crisis model proposed by Lorenzoni and Werning 2014 with a standard New Keynesian model. CESifo Working Paper No. 3821. Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone. An Empirical Test. Abstract. We test the hypothesis that the government bond markets in the Eurozone are more fragile and more susceptible to self-fulfilling liquidity crises than in standalone countries. We find DEBT TRAJECTORIES IF A CRISIS IS AVOIDED Time B B b q = 0, k = k d q = 1-π β k = k π q = β, k = k n DEFAULT ONLY ZONE CRISIS ZONE Binding Participation Constraint NO CRISIS ZONE b 1 b 5 b 4 b 3 b 2. Title: Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises Author: Harold L. Cole and Timothy J. Kehoe Created Date.

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises w ith Long Stagnations. Joao Ayres. Inter-American Development Bank. Gaston Navarro. Federal Reserve Board. Juan Pablo Nicolini. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. Pedro Teles. Banco de Portugal, Catolica Lisbon SBE, and CEPR. Working Paper 757. April 2019. DOI: https. Obstfeld, M. 1986, Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance of Payments Crisis, American Economic Review, No. 76, pp. 72–81. Google Scholar Obstfeld, M. 1995, Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 5285.

The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the authors and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Several papers argue that debt crises can be the result of self-fulfilling expectations. Mar 06, 2017 · We revisit self-fulfilling rollover crises by introducing an alternative equilibrium selection that involves bond auctions at depressed but strictly positive equilibrium prices, a scenario in line with observed sovereign debt crises. We refer to these auctions as "desperate deals," the defining. We consider a model of sovereign borrowing featuring endogenous debt maturity, risk averse lenders and self-fulfilling rollover crises á la Cole and Kehoe 2000. In this environment, interest rate spreads are driven by economic fundamentals and by expectations of future self-fulfilling defaults. We ignore the crisis in Cyprus, which has been a banking crisis, rather than a debt crisis of the sort we analyze here. These data are at odds with the theory developed by Cole and Kehoe 1996, 2000, who argue that the optimal policy of a government that faces a positive probability of a self-fulfilling debt crisis is to pay down its debt. Working Paper 565 Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises in Theory and Practice by. as well as working papers and books on diverse economic issues. To obtain a. self-fulfillingly making the country financially fragile. While self-fulfilling debt crises have been analyzed in different forms, in their purest form, they are the perverse outcome of a.

Working Papers describe research in progress by the authors and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Several papers argue that debt crises can be the result of self-fulfilling expectations that no one will lend to a country. Several papers argue that debt crises can be the result of self-fulfilling expectations that no one will lend to a country. I show this type of coordination failure can be eliminated by a combination of state-contingent securities and a mechanism that allows investors to promise to lend only if enough other investors do so as well. Flood, Robert P., Garber Peter M. and Kramer Charles, “Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Another Linear Example,” NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No. 5318. Google Scholar Giavazzi, Francesco and Pagano, Marco, “Confidence Crises and Public Debt Management,” NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No. 2926, April 1989. Several papers argue that debt crises can be the result of self-fulfilling expectations that no one will lend to a country, triggering default and rationalizing the refusal to lend. Self-fulfilling debt crises: What can monetary policy do?. Very responsive fiscal policy could in principle eliminate the concern about self-fulfilling debt crises. In this paper, however, we take vulnerability to self-fulfilling debt crises as given in the absence of monetary policy action. NBER Working Paper No. 20650 2014 Google.

Several papers argue that debt crises can be the result of self-fulfilling expectations that no one will lend to a country. I show this type of coordination failure can be eliminated by a combination of state-contingent securities and a mechanism that allows investors to promise to lend only if enough other investors do so as well. This suggests that runs on the debt of a single borrower such. "Gambling for Redemption and Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," 2012 Meeting Papers 614, Society for Economic Dynamics. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2015. "Gambling for Redemption and Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," NBER Working Papers 21026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Cristina Arellano, 2008. Downloadable! This paper examines quantitatively the potential for monetary policy to avoid self-fulfilling sovereign debt crises. We combine a version of the slow-moving debt crisis model proposed by Lorenzoni and Werning 2014 with a standard New Keynesian model. We consider both conventional and unconventional monetary policy. Under conventional policy the central bank can preclude a debt. Title: Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises Created Date: 20160809194549Z. Chang and A. Velasco, "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Paper No. 6469, March 1998; Chang and Velasco, "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," NBER Working Paper No. 6606, June 1998; Chang and Velasco, "Banks, Debt Maturity, and Financial Crises," forthcoming, Journal of International Economics.

This paper asks whether a government can implement policies that help to avert a crisis driven by self-fulfilling expectations. I consider two policies that are often at the center of political discussions, namely austerity and fiscal stimulus. I find that under plausible conditions austerity tends to decrease the probability of a debt crisis, while stimulus tends to increase it. This paper investigates the international dimension of self-fulfilling sovereign debt crises and characterizes self-interested bailouts solidarity and contagion. A credible bailout. The ADEMU Working Paper Series is being supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 European Union. Download Citation on ResearchGate Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises in Theory and Practice This paper analyzes econometrically how a country`s post-crisis debt ratio could be forecast, in the.

ADEMU WORKING PAPER SERIES The Mystery of the Printing Press Monetary Policy and Self-fulfilling Debt Crises. The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area and the launch of the Outright Monetary Transactions OMTs program by the European Central Bank ECB in September 2012 have revived the debate on the role of monetary.

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